Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
2050 and the Future of Transportation
2050 and the Future of Transportation
Frictionless Vehicles and Binary Power
will Define Transportation in the World Ahead
Transportation technology is progressing at a much slower pace than some of the other sciences such as information technology, biotech, and nanotechnology. As an example, the world’s human speed record was set in 1969, a full 37 years ago, when Thomas Stafford, John Young, and Gene Cernan flew in Apollo 10 at 24,790 mph. While there is much talk about flying at a speed that approaches the speed of light, very little effort is actually being expended in this area.
However, transportation technology is about to move ahead more rapidly in the coming years with the advent of two radically new technologies – frictionless vehicles and binary power.
Throughout history we have learned that the two principle driving forces of humanity are freedom and control. While current automotive technology gives us the freedom to drive as fast or slow as our vehicle will take us, and control over our timing and direction, we are still restricted to driving on the ground and we have a hornet’s nest of laws to contend with regarding speed, flow, and operation.
Understanding the “freedom and control” drivers is key to understanding the future of transportation. Any new forms of transportation that do not measurably improve our sense of freedom or give us added control of our lives will likely fail in the marketplace.
In the near future, automotive companies will focus on fully automated vehicles where people can “punch in” or “speak” the place they want to go to and the vehicle will automatically take them there. This “control feature” will open up huge additional markets for automotive companies to sell to the elderly, families with kids too young to drive, and the visually, physically, and mentally impaired. The arrival of fully automated navigation systems for ground-based vehicles will set the stage for fully automated navigation systems for flying vehicles.
Here are a few other transportation landmarks that will help pave the way for the more significant innovations.
By 2010 personal transportation devices will be all the rage and electric shoes with built-in roller-skates will be gaining much of the attention. After nine years of heavy media coverage, the Segway Human Transporter will begin to gain serious market share.
By 2015 traditional gas-powered autos will start to decline with electric automobiles and hybrids taking up most of the slack.
By 2020 we will see an industry being built up around self-illuminating highways – highways that glow in the dark. “Glow Roads” will dramatically change the night-time aesthetics of major cities and will be shown to improve driving safety at night and reduce the need for streetlights.
By 2025 a first attempt at launching the space elevator will fail, setting the industry back a decade.
Frictionless Vehicles
Around 2030 we will see commercialization of the first friction-free no-moving-parts flying vehicles which will be considered by many to be the ultimate freedom machine. Much like the transition from analog to digital in the world of information technology, the study of traditional mechanics and traditional aerodynamics will be replaced with a new physics governing vehicular movement.
Even today, flying cars are very much on the radar screen to become a next generation automotive technology. They will begin with a more convenient version of today’s airplanes and eventually converting over to the frictionless cars.
The Flying Car Era
The flying car era will really begin around 2015 with flying drones. Flying drones will be used by FedEx and UPS to deliver packages, Pizza Hut to deliver pizzas, and Kroger and Safeway to deliver groceries. But beyond that, drones will enable homes to be taken off the grid with delivery of water and electricity (changing out batteries for the home), trash and sewage pickup, and much more. These too will begin as air-powered vehicles and later convert to frictionless drones.
Six key technological breakthroughs will be needed for the first generation of flying cars to become viable – the fully automated navigation systems, directional layering of airspace, low-impact vertical take-off, convenient fly-drive capability, silent engines, and specialized safety systems.
Fully automated navigation systems – The average person has a difficult time navigating on a two dimensional surface. The flying car industry will not be able to “get off the ground” without an onboard navigator that “handles the driving”. Yes, people will want the freedom of being able to do some creative maneuvering in certain situations, but that will only be allowed in rare instances.
Directional layering of airspace – With several hundred thousand vehicles flying over a city, there will need to be an organized system for managing the traffic, and having all vehicles at a particular altitude traveling the same direction would eliminate many problems. For example, all vehicles traveling at 1,000 ft altitude would be traveling due north, at 1,010 ft altitude 1 degree east of due north, 1,020 ft altitude 2 degrees east of due north, etc. Vehicles would spiral up or down to make their turns. While not a perfect solution because the North Pole becomes a crash point for those flying due north, it does represent a good starting point for engineering a solution.
Low-impact vertical take-off – For use by the average person, flying cars cannot have a runway requirement. They need to take off and land vertically without blowing the leaves off of trees or shutters off your house.
Convenient fly-drive capability – As humanity makes the transition from ground-based autos to flying cars there will be a need for both driving on the ground and flying in the air.
Silent engines – Very few cities will want to put up with the noise of several hundred thousand flying vehicles if they all sound like airplanes today.
Specialized safety systems – To date both aircraft and airspace have been closely controlled by organizations like the FAA and the NTSB to insure the safety of the flying public. Because of the sheer volume of vehicles and the lower caliber of individuals allowed to fly, additional safety measures will have to be in place. Safety technologies will include collision avoidance systems and drop-out-of-the-sky emergency airbags on the outside of vehicles.
Binary Power
The friction-free no-moving-parts vehicles will run on what we call “binary power”. Binary power is the concept where two otherwise harmless beams of energy will intersect at some point in space creating a source of power.
To better explain binary power, think in terms of two invisible beams intersecting in a room and the point at which they intersect is a glowing point of light. Yes, binary power will eventually replace all light bulbs. And lest you think it can only be used for intense forms of power, it will also be used to create “points” of sound, eliminating the need for speakers and headphones.
2050 and the Transportation Industry
With power being beamed in, the cost, weight, and manufacturing complexity of these vehicles will be greatly reduced. For this reason the industry will go through a very rapid conversion leaving the mechanical masterpieces we know as cars today destined for the scrap heap.
By 2050, because of friction-free technologies and advances in material science, the average passenger vehicle will weigh less than 200 lbs.
By 2050, because of automation, far fewer pieces, and greatly reduced complexity the average manufacturing time for a vehicle will be less than one hour.
By 2050, the cost of the average vehicle will be under $5,000 in today’s dollars.
By 2050, because of the use of automated navigation systems, traffic courts will be a distant memory.
Once the flying car industry takes off there will be a gradual decaying of the existing highway system. Eventually highways will go away, starting around 2070.
2050 and the Emerging Space Industry
Frictionless engines will form the basis of new propulsion systems for space travel.
By 2050 we will have fully functioning space elevators operating at full capacity, moving both people and supplies into space.
By 2050 over one million people will have visited the moon.
By 2050 several dozen space hotels will have made a major impact on tourism with growing numbers of people opting for the “sleeping with the stars” vacation package.
By 2050 several space stations will have been started as small working cities to build the next generation of space-based industries.
2050 and the Power Industry
The power that drives vehicles will transition from oil to electric and later to binary power. Electric vehicles will start to make major market inroads around 2015 because of improved battery technologies and because of the fact that the electric infrastructure is already in place for rapid “refueling”. Hydrogen will make some inroads but will not become anything more than a niche industry.
By 2050 oil and gas will remain plentiful as demand drops precipitously with the emergence of alternative sources. Oil & gas will remain as an energy source, but will only be used in niche industries.
By 2050 the automotive industry will make a near-complete transition to binary power as a principle source of vehicular power.
By 2050 space-based power stations will be operational, supplying a significant percentage of the world’s power needs.
By 2050 nearly all light bulbs will have disappeared, replaced with binary power creating points of light in space.
2050 and the Shifting of Politics and Culture
While individuals will be striving to gain control, our countries and governments will begin to see their control slipping away. The Internet has created borderless economies that have confused the issue of power and control and even the sovereignty of nations. With the Internet’s ability to conduct business and perform flawless transactions across borders, countries have essentially lost control of commerce. Flying cars will take this one step further and countries will begin to lose control of their citizens as national borders become meaningless.
While it is possible to visualize “electronic borders” formed around the perimeter of a country, cloaking devices and other types of system hacks will quickly render that kind of system useless.
By 2050 the Nation-State as we know it today, will be replaced by a new form of governance.
By 2050 there will have been a “peeling apart” of the law-of-the-land and the law-of-the-people. People will always demand solutions for ownership issues related to property rights, but individuals will become highly mobile entities requiring a new form of global governance tied to an internationally recognized ethics standard.
By 2050 we will see a number of virtual, non-land-based, countries come into existence, each attempting to gain international recognition and citizens from around the world.
In closing…
The future of transportation will be derived by strong desires for personal freedom and people’s need to gain control over lifestyles that are moving faster and faster.
At the DaVinci Institute, our goal in writing “2050 and the Future of Transportation” was to help stimulate thinking and hopefully make it controversial enough to cause these topics to be debated. While we did manage to turn our crystal ball on high beam for this exercise, there are many optional paths that we could potentially go down to cause a different outcome.
Frictionless Vehicles and Binary Power
will Define Transportation in the World Ahead
Transportation technology is progressing at a much slower pace than some of the other sciences such as information technology, biotech, and nanotechnology. As an example, the world’s human speed record was set in 1969, a full 37 years ago, when Thomas Stafford, John Young, and Gene Cernan flew in Apollo 10 at 24,790 mph. While there is much talk about flying at a speed that approaches the speed of light, very little effort is actually being expended in this area.
However, transportation technology is about to move ahead more rapidly in the coming years with the advent of two radically new technologies – frictionless vehicles and binary power.
Throughout history we have learned that the two principle driving forces of humanity are freedom and control. While current automotive technology gives us the freedom to drive as fast or slow as our vehicle will take us, and control over our timing and direction, we are still restricted to driving on the ground and we have a hornet’s nest of laws to contend with regarding speed, flow, and operation.
Understanding the “freedom and control” drivers is key to understanding the future of transportation. Any new forms of transportation that do not measurably improve our sense of freedom or give us added control of our lives will likely fail in the marketplace.
In the near future, automotive companies will focus on fully automated vehicles where people can “punch in” or “speak” the place they want to go to and the vehicle will automatically take them there. This “control feature” will open up huge additional markets for automotive companies to sell to the elderly, families with kids too young to drive, and the visually, physically, and mentally impaired. The arrival of fully automated navigation systems for ground-based vehicles will set the stage for fully automated navigation systems for flying vehicles.
Here are a few other transportation landmarks that will help pave the way for the more significant innovations.
By 2010 personal transportation devices will be all the rage and electric shoes with built-in roller-skates will be gaining much of the attention. After nine years of heavy media coverage, the Segway Human Transporter will begin to gain serious market share.
By 2015 traditional gas-powered autos will start to decline with electric automobiles and hybrids taking up most of the slack.
By 2020 we will see an industry being built up around self-illuminating highways – highways that glow in the dark. “Glow Roads” will dramatically change the night-time aesthetics of major cities and will be shown to improve driving safety at night and reduce the need for streetlights.
By 2025 a first attempt at launching the space elevator will fail, setting the industry back a decade.
Frictionless Vehicles
Around 2030 we will see commercialization of the first friction-free no-moving-parts flying vehicles which will be considered by many to be the ultimate freedom machine. Much like the transition from analog to digital in the world of information technology, the study of traditional mechanics and traditional aerodynamics will be replaced with a new physics governing vehicular movement.
Even today, flying cars are very much on the radar screen to become a next generation automotive technology. They will begin with a more convenient version of today’s airplanes and eventually converting over to the frictionless cars.
The Flying Car Era
The flying car era will really begin around 2015 with flying drones. Flying drones will be used by FedEx and UPS to deliver packages, Pizza Hut to deliver pizzas, and Kroger and Safeway to deliver groceries. But beyond that, drones will enable homes to be taken off the grid with delivery of water and electricity (changing out batteries for the home), trash and sewage pickup, and much more. These too will begin as air-powered vehicles and later convert to frictionless drones.
Six key technological breakthroughs will be needed for the first generation of flying cars to become viable – the fully automated navigation systems, directional layering of airspace, low-impact vertical take-off, convenient fly-drive capability, silent engines, and specialized safety systems.
Fully automated navigation systems – The average person has a difficult time navigating on a two dimensional surface. The flying car industry will not be able to “get off the ground” without an onboard navigator that “handles the driving”. Yes, people will want the freedom of being able to do some creative maneuvering in certain situations, but that will only be allowed in rare instances.
Directional layering of airspace – With several hundred thousand vehicles flying over a city, there will need to be an organized system for managing the traffic, and having all vehicles at a particular altitude traveling the same direction would eliminate many problems. For example, all vehicles traveling at 1,000 ft altitude would be traveling due north, at 1,010 ft altitude 1 degree east of due north, 1,020 ft altitude 2 degrees east of due north, etc. Vehicles would spiral up or down to make their turns. While not a perfect solution because the North Pole becomes a crash point for those flying due north, it does represent a good starting point for engineering a solution.
Low-impact vertical take-off – For use by the average person, flying cars cannot have a runway requirement. They need to take off and land vertically without blowing the leaves off of trees or shutters off your house.
Convenient fly-drive capability – As humanity makes the transition from ground-based autos to flying cars there will be a need for both driving on the ground and flying in the air.
Silent engines – Very few cities will want to put up with the noise of several hundred thousand flying vehicles if they all sound like airplanes today.
Specialized safety systems – To date both aircraft and airspace have been closely controlled by organizations like the FAA and the NTSB to insure the safety of the flying public. Because of the sheer volume of vehicles and the lower caliber of individuals allowed to fly, additional safety measures will have to be in place. Safety technologies will include collision avoidance systems and drop-out-of-the-sky emergency airbags on the outside of vehicles.
Binary Power
The friction-free no-moving-parts vehicles will run on what we call “binary power”. Binary power is the concept where two otherwise harmless beams of energy will intersect at some point in space creating a source of power.
To better explain binary power, think in terms of two invisible beams intersecting in a room and the point at which they intersect is a glowing point of light. Yes, binary power will eventually replace all light bulbs. And lest you think it can only be used for intense forms of power, it will also be used to create “points” of sound, eliminating the need for speakers and headphones.
2050 and the Transportation Industry
With power being beamed in, the cost, weight, and manufacturing complexity of these vehicles will be greatly reduced. For this reason the industry will go through a very rapid conversion leaving the mechanical masterpieces we know as cars today destined for the scrap heap.
By 2050, because of friction-free technologies and advances in material science, the average passenger vehicle will weigh less than 200 lbs.
By 2050, because of automation, far fewer pieces, and greatly reduced complexity the average manufacturing time for a vehicle will be less than one hour.
By 2050, the cost of the average vehicle will be under $5,000 in today’s dollars.
By 2050, because of the use of automated navigation systems, traffic courts will be a distant memory.
Once the flying car industry takes off there will be a gradual decaying of the existing highway system. Eventually highways will go away, starting around 2070.
2050 and the Emerging Space Industry
Frictionless engines will form the basis of new propulsion systems for space travel.
By 2050 we will have fully functioning space elevators operating at full capacity, moving both people and supplies into space.
By 2050 over one million people will have visited the moon.
By 2050 several dozen space hotels will have made a major impact on tourism with growing numbers of people opting for the “sleeping with the stars” vacation package.
By 2050 several space stations will have been started as small working cities to build the next generation of space-based industries.
2050 and the Power Industry
The power that drives vehicles will transition from oil to electric and later to binary power. Electric vehicles will start to make major market inroads around 2015 because of improved battery technologies and because of the fact that the electric infrastructure is already in place for rapid “refueling”. Hydrogen will make some inroads but will not become anything more than a niche industry.
By 2050 oil and gas will remain plentiful as demand drops precipitously with the emergence of alternative sources. Oil & gas will remain as an energy source, but will only be used in niche industries.
By 2050 the automotive industry will make a near-complete transition to binary power as a principle source of vehicular power.
By 2050 space-based power stations will be operational, supplying a significant percentage of the world’s power needs.
By 2050 nearly all light bulbs will have disappeared, replaced with binary power creating points of light in space.
2050 and the Shifting of Politics and Culture
While individuals will be striving to gain control, our countries and governments will begin to see their control slipping away. The Internet has created borderless economies that have confused the issue of power and control and even the sovereignty of nations. With the Internet’s ability to conduct business and perform flawless transactions across borders, countries have essentially lost control of commerce. Flying cars will take this one step further and countries will begin to lose control of their citizens as national borders become meaningless.
While it is possible to visualize “electronic borders” formed around the perimeter of a country, cloaking devices and other types of system hacks will quickly render that kind of system useless.
By 2050 the Nation-State as we know it today, will be replaced by a new form of governance.
By 2050 there will have been a “peeling apart” of the law-of-the-land and the law-of-the-people. People will always demand solutions for ownership issues related to property rights, but individuals will become highly mobile entities requiring a new form of global governance tied to an internationally recognized ethics standard.
By 2050 we will see a number of virtual, non-land-based, countries come into existence, each attempting to gain international recognition and citizens from around the world.
In closing…
The future of transportation will be derived by strong desires for personal freedom and people’s need to gain control over lifestyles that are moving faster and faster.
At the DaVinci Institute, our goal in writing “2050 and the Future of Transportation” was to help stimulate thinking and hopefully make it controversial enough to cause these topics to be debated. While we did manage to turn our crystal ball on high beam for this exercise, there are many optional paths that we could potentially go down to cause a different outcome.
Timing, they say, is everything. And Cadillac's could certainly be better. Three months after the 1929 stock-market crash, Cadillac premiered at the New York auto show its Series 452 with a 185-horsepower V-16 engine designed to trump chief rival Packard's V-12.
Fast-forward almost 80 years: Cadillac is ready for another flagship, perhaps something along the lines of the gorgeous Sixteen concept that was first shown in 2003. Except, once again, the economy isn't ready. Worse, once-mighty GM doesn't even have the money to spend on such a project -- it's got Chevy Volts and Cruzes that badly need building.
It's been four or five decades since Cadillac built a car that came close to being "The Standard of the World" -- the brand's tagline until the 1970s -- but with the new CTS, and especially the world-beating CTS-v sport sedan, its rehabilitation is well underway. The first step was, believe it or don't, the King of Bling 1999 Escalade, which made Caddy a must-have for sports, music, and Hollywood stars. More important, it dramatically improved Cadillac's chance of being considered for purchase by buyers under 50 years of age.
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The original Escalade made so much profit and gave GM management so much confidence in the brand's appeal that the decision was made to invest in the Sigma premium platform, which returned most of Cadillac's passenger-car lineup to rear-drive and forms the basis for the COTY-winning 2008 CTS. It was a turning point in Cadillac's fortunes no one expected, and few --especially at GM -- initially understood.
Nearly a decade on, Cadillac is still only a bit player in the premium segment -- selling fewer cars than Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Lexus here in the U.S. -- and virtually invisible in Europe and Asia. And now, it's at a crossroads; arguably the most crucial in the brand's history: Cadillac is off life support, but to prosper it must go global. GM will not measure Cadillac's success only by the number of German and Japanese luxury-car buyers it conquests. More important is to grab a share of new luxury-car buyers, many of them coming from emerging markets like China and Russia.
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With the U.S. appeal of the Escalade diminishing in proportion to the rise in gas prices -- 2008 sales to the end of July were down 30 percent year on year -- and the current STS, DTS, SRX, and XLR aging fast, Cadillac is effectively a one-car company, almost totally reliant on the CTS. That means it needs at least 10 more years of solid investment in a new range of vehicles. Problem is, cash-strapped GM faces a ravaged economy and the spectre of the 2011-2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, right at the very time its luxury brand needs money to take on Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, and Lexus.
All this explains why GM is taking a bigger gamble now than it did in 1929 and launching up to 10 new Cadillacs in the next five years. But it has no choice. The future of American luxury is at stake.
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2010 CTS COUPE
The coupe, which premiered at the Los Angeles auto show in November, rolls on the same 113.4-inch wheelbase as the CTS sedan, which saves a lot of development and tooling money, yet achieves coupelike proportions, thanks to a fast roofline and a rear overhang that's 4.6 inches shorter. It's a strategy GM's Australian designers used to create the Pontiac GTO coupe from the Holden Commodore sedan.
All the sheetmetal past the A-pillar is exclusive to the coupe. But while that fast backlight looks great, it effectively nixes the chance there will be a convertible version, because GM would have to engineer new structural metal around the rear end as well as new quarter panels and decklid.
The concept's rear bumper was redesigned for rear-offset crash standards, but the single-pipe-centered exhaust remains. The engine is the sedan's 3.6-liter V-6, including the optional 304-horsepower gas direct-injection version. The CTS-v version will follow within a year after the coupe's mid-2009 launch. As most of the engine, transmission, and suspension hardware from the sedan virtually bolts right in, this 556-horse Caddy two-door will be a relatively low-cost program.
AIMED AT: BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz CLK, Audi A5
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2010 CTS SPORT WAGON
This is very much a Eurocentric model. Cadillac initially considered the wagon a niche car for the U.S., with volume in the 3000 to 4000 range. The entire brand sold just 4508 units in Europe in 2007, so even if the Sport Wagon becomes its volume model there, total sales probably will be well below 8000 units worldwide.
As a result, Cadillac now is talking up the CTS wagon as an alternative for buyers anxious to get out of big, luxury SUVs. Given America's love affair with the SUV, it's unlikely to prove as popular as the next-generation SRX (see next page). Powertrain lineup in the U.S. will mirror the sedan's, which means the 3.6-liter V-6, with either 263 horses, or direct injection and 304 horses. All-wheel drive also will be available.
What about a CTS-v Sport Wagon? A 556-horsepower load hauler might tempt us enthusiasts, but it's off the table, for now. The wagon has a flexier body than those of the sedan and coupe and would require serious recalibration of the suspension. The potential sales volume would be too small for that sort of capital investment.
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European buyers will be able to buy the CTS Sport Wagon with the 2.9-liter VM Motori turbodiesel. But don't rule out a diesel for the U.S., either: GM is considering its smooth, innovative new 4.5-liter turbodiesel V-8, originally designed for the GMT 360 midsize sport/utilities. It fits under the hood of the CTS sedan, coupe, and wagon, so long as Cadillac uses the raised CTS-v hood-the 4.5 diesel's turbocharger resides in the engine's vee.
AIMED AT: BMW 5 Series wagon, Mercedes-Benz E-Class wagon, Audi A6 Avant
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2010 SRX CROSSOVER
Cadillac's crossover switches from the rear-drive Sigma platform to the front-drive Theta-Epsilon (GMT166) platform next year, although all-wheel drive is likely to be standard. Styling of the production version, which is expected to make its debut at the 2009 Detroit show, will differ little from the concept already seen.
Moving SRX off Sigma onto Theta-Epsilon buys GM a better interior package relative to the vehicle footprint. It shares the new platform with the upcoming Saab 9-4x, and it's bigger than the Chevy Equinox, Pontiac Torrent (GMC Terrain), and Saturn Vue Thetas, so it's directed squarely at Lexus' hugely popular RX midsize crossovers.
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The SRX will be loaded with far more features and high technology than any of its platform brethren, though not the hybrid powertrain the Provoq fuel-cell hybrid hinted at. Engine options are 2.8- and 3.6-liter gas V-6s. Exports to Europe could get the 1.9-liter turbodiesel used in the BLS.
RIVALS: Lexus RX, Mercedes-Benz ML, BMW X5, Audi Q5, Acura MDX, Infiniti EX
2011 ALPHA FAMILY
Even Mercedes, Audi, and Lexus envy what BMW has done with the 3 Series: Making it an "affordable," iconic sport-luxury model that brings in bags-full of euros in profit. Alpha is GM's small rear-drive vehicle architecture and launches in late 2010 as a smaller-than-CTS Cadillac sedan aimed straight at the 3 Series.
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This is where the volume is in the premium segment, both here in the U.S. and in Europe and Asia. This is where the money is made. Cadillac simply cannot afford not to do this car. And it cannot afford not to do coupe, convertible, and wagon variants of the car, just like Benz and BMW.
A 2012 Alpha convertible is likely to follow within a year. An Alpha coupe is a logical addition, although here's where the picture gets fuzzy. One of our spy photos shows a radical two-door hatchback-style car (similar in concept to the Z3-based BMW M Coupe that bowed in 1998). Cadillac may be anticipating an emerging trend toward luxury C-segment hatchbacks, which seems a gamble, even for the European market, although Mercedes is a player in the segment with the C-Class-based CLC.
We hear Bob Lutz is pushing hard for an Alpha coupe that's more or less a scaled-down version of the CTS. But the CTS Coupe's extreme rake makes it difficult to do a convertible at low cost compared with a more conventional three-box design-and a convertible to rival BMW's 3 Series and Benz's CLK is essential if Alpha is to be a truly global, high-margin vehicle.
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Besides, it's clear GM design chief Ed Wellburn doesn't want Alpha to be a CTS mini-me: "You know, if you're doing a smaller-type Cadillac, you'd have to tighten up the forms more," he says, without actually confirming the car's existence. "Because if you're doing a smaller one, you'd want it to be an agile, nimble car, and you certainly wouldn't want to do what some other brands have done, brands that are known for doing handling well and having a heavy body shape. That relationship of the body shape to the wheels is important, and you'd want to keep it lean."
As for Alpha's powertrains, Cadillac is experimenting with a direct-injection turbocharged 2.0-liter engine using the same fuel-sipping power-enhancing technology as the upcoming Cruze's 1.4-liter turbo four to produce about 220 horsepower. An optional 2.8-liter direct-injection V-6 from the "high-feature" (3.6) family could make upward of 270 horsepower. Europeans will be offered the exceptional 1.9-liter turbodiesel four.
RIVALS: BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, Audi A4, Lexus IS
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2012 DT7
Cadillac had planned to replace the rear-drive STS and front-drive DTS with one flagship, codenamed DT7. But in late summer that project was put on hold for one year. GM reportedly delayed funding the program just as Cadillac finished design work on the sedan.
Here's where the GM's cash crunch, the nuked economy, and concerns over the next-generation CAFE laws have coalesced into a perfect storm: The DT7 is precisely the sort of flagship car Cadillac needs to be considered a legitimate player in the luxury segment, a car that should play with Mercedes S-Class, BMW 7 Series, Lexus LS 460, and-yes-Hyundai's astounding new Genesis sedan. GM will be watching the national/global zeitgeist to determine whether building a new, large sedan makes better sense in late 2009 than it does in late 2008.
If GM spikes the project-plans were scrapped for a large Chevy sedan using the same architecture but on a shorter-wheelbase employing totally different sheetmetal and interior trim, and cheaper suspension components, which would have helped the business case-there's a lower-cost alternative: Design new sheetmetal for the stretch-wheelbase STS currently built for the Chinese market. In either scenario, likely engines will include the gas direct-injection 3.6 V-6 and the 4.5-liter turbodiesel V-8.
RIVALS: Mercedes-Benz S-Class; BMW 7 Series, Lexus LS 460, Hyundai Genesis
2014 ESCALADE
GM's full-size truck and SUV programs are on indefinite hold. But that hasn't stopped GM from thinking about the next-generation Escalade. This is, after all, the nameplate that unexpectedly kick-started Cadillac's renaissance; it would be foolish to walk away from the brand equity. Besides, even if gas prices remain high, Escalade is one of the few GM nameplates whose customers are wealthy enough for relatively poor gas mileage not to be a deal-breaker.
One of the key questions Cadillac product planners have been wrestling with is whether the Escalade needs to be truck-based. One proposal for the next-gen Escalade used the Lambda platform that underpins Enclave/Acadia/Outlook/Traverse, but turned the engine 90 degrees, placing it longitudinally for rear-drive dash-to-axle styling. This proved too costly a tear-up of the chassis from the A-pillar forward, although it could become part of the design of the next-generation Lambdas, which should launch some time in 2013-2014 model years.
More likely, the next-gen Escalade will be switched to the existing Lambda platform, which will accept a transverse-mounted small-block V-8 under the hood (the Enclave almost got one). The rear-drive dash-to-axle stance that's so critical in defining a luxury sedan seems less important in SUVs, but that doesn't mean it's a straightforward program.
The problem with Lambda for Cadillac is the structural steel under the skin would have to be re-engineered to give the Escalade a more formal roofline-and more vertical D-pillars-than any of the current Lambdas. The car also would need a less aggressively rising beltline and a new tailgate aperture. Those important stylistic issues-things that would ensure a Lambda Escalade is instantly perceived as a Cadillac-are not cheap.
So the three scenarios under discussion are to keep building the truck-based Escalade, replace it with a Lambda Escalade, or sell both. If Cadillac goes with Lambda, that doesn't mean the death of the EXT. Remember the Zeta-based GMC Denali XT concept?
Fast-forward almost 80 years: Cadillac is ready for another flagship, perhaps something along the lines of the gorgeous Sixteen concept that was first shown in 2003. Except, once again, the economy isn't ready. Worse, once-mighty GM doesn't even have the money to spend on such a project -- it's got Chevy Volts and Cruzes that badly need building.
It's been four or five decades since Cadillac built a car that came close to being "The Standard of the World" -- the brand's tagline until the 1970s -- but with the new CTS, and especially the world-beating CTS-v sport sedan, its rehabilitation is well underway. The first step was, believe it or don't, the King of Bling 1999 Escalade, which made Caddy a must-have for sports, music, and Hollywood stars. More important, it dramatically improved Cadillac's chance of being considered for purchase by buyers under 50 years of age.
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The original Escalade made so much profit and gave GM management so much confidence in the brand's appeal that the decision was made to invest in the Sigma premium platform, which returned most of Cadillac's passenger-car lineup to rear-drive and forms the basis for the COTY-winning 2008 CTS. It was a turning point in Cadillac's fortunes no one expected, and few --especially at GM -- initially understood.
Nearly a decade on, Cadillac is still only a bit player in the premium segment -- selling fewer cars than Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Lexus here in the U.S. -- and virtually invisible in Europe and Asia. And now, it's at a crossroads; arguably the most crucial in the brand's history: Cadillac is off life support, but to prosper it must go global. GM will not measure Cadillac's success only by the number of German and Japanese luxury-car buyers it conquests. More important is to grab a share of new luxury-car buyers, many of them coming from emerging markets like China and Russia.
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With the U.S. appeal of the Escalade diminishing in proportion to the rise in gas prices -- 2008 sales to the end of July were down 30 percent year on year -- and the current STS, DTS, SRX, and XLR aging fast, Cadillac is effectively a one-car company, almost totally reliant on the CTS. That means it needs at least 10 more years of solid investment in a new range of vehicles. Problem is, cash-strapped GM faces a ravaged economy and the spectre of the 2011-2015 Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, right at the very time its luxury brand needs money to take on Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi, and Lexus.
All this explains why GM is taking a bigger gamble now than it did in 1929 and launching up to 10 new Cadillacs in the next five years. But it has no choice. The future of American luxury is at stake.
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2010 CTS COUPE
The coupe, which premiered at the Los Angeles auto show in November, rolls on the same 113.4-inch wheelbase as the CTS sedan, which saves a lot of development and tooling money, yet achieves coupelike proportions, thanks to a fast roofline and a rear overhang that's 4.6 inches shorter. It's a strategy GM's Australian designers used to create the Pontiac GTO coupe from the Holden Commodore sedan.
All the sheetmetal past the A-pillar is exclusive to the coupe. But while that fast backlight looks great, it effectively nixes the chance there will be a convertible version, because GM would have to engineer new structural metal around the rear end as well as new quarter panels and decklid.
The concept's rear bumper was redesigned for rear-offset crash standards, but the single-pipe-centered exhaust remains. The engine is the sedan's 3.6-liter V-6, including the optional 304-horsepower gas direct-injection version. The CTS-v version will follow within a year after the coupe's mid-2009 launch. As most of the engine, transmission, and suspension hardware from the sedan virtually bolts right in, this 556-horse Caddy two-door will be a relatively low-cost program.
AIMED AT: BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz CLK, Audi A5
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2010 CTS SPORT WAGON
This is very much a Eurocentric model. Cadillac initially considered the wagon a niche car for the U.S., with volume in the 3000 to 4000 range. The entire brand sold just 4508 units in Europe in 2007, so even if the Sport Wagon becomes its volume model there, total sales probably will be well below 8000 units worldwide.
As a result, Cadillac now is talking up the CTS wagon as an alternative for buyers anxious to get out of big, luxury SUVs. Given America's love affair with the SUV, it's unlikely to prove as popular as the next-generation SRX (see next page). Powertrain lineup in the U.S. will mirror the sedan's, which means the 3.6-liter V-6, with either 263 horses, or direct injection and 304 horses. All-wheel drive also will be available.
What about a CTS-v Sport Wagon? A 556-horsepower load hauler might tempt us enthusiasts, but it's off the table, for now. The wagon has a flexier body than those of the sedan and coupe and would require serious recalibration of the suspension. The potential sales volume would be too small for that sort of capital investment.
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European buyers will be able to buy the CTS Sport Wagon with the 2.9-liter VM Motori turbodiesel. But don't rule out a diesel for the U.S., either: GM is considering its smooth, innovative new 4.5-liter turbodiesel V-8, originally designed for the GMT 360 midsize sport/utilities. It fits under the hood of the CTS sedan, coupe, and wagon, so long as Cadillac uses the raised CTS-v hood-the 4.5 diesel's turbocharger resides in the engine's vee.
AIMED AT: BMW 5 Series wagon, Mercedes-Benz E-Class wagon, Audi A6 Avant
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2010 SRX CROSSOVER
Cadillac's crossover switches from the rear-drive Sigma platform to the front-drive Theta-Epsilon (GMT166) platform next year, although all-wheel drive is likely to be standard. Styling of the production version, which is expected to make its debut at the 2009 Detroit show, will differ little from the concept already seen.
Moving SRX off Sigma onto Theta-Epsilon buys GM a better interior package relative to the vehicle footprint. It shares the new platform with the upcoming Saab 9-4x, and it's bigger than the Chevy Equinox, Pontiac Torrent (GMC Terrain), and Saturn Vue Thetas, so it's directed squarely at Lexus' hugely popular RX midsize crossovers.
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The SRX will be loaded with far more features and high technology than any of its platform brethren, though not the hybrid powertrain the Provoq fuel-cell hybrid hinted at. Engine options are 2.8- and 3.6-liter gas V-6s. Exports to Europe could get the 1.9-liter turbodiesel used in the BLS.
RIVALS: Lexus RX, Mercedes-Benz ML, BMW X5, Audi Q5, Acura MDX, Infiniti EX
2011 ALPHA FAMILY
Even Mercedes, Audi, and Lexus envy what BMW has done with the 3 Series: Making it an "affordable," iconic sport-luxury model that brings in bags-full of euros in profit. Alpha is GM's small rear-drive vehicle architecture and launches in late 2010 as a smaller-than-CTS Cadillac sedan aimed straight at the 3 Series.
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This is where the volume is in the premium segment, both here in the U.S. and in Europe and Asia. This is where the money is made. Cadillac simply cannot afford not to do this car. And it cannot afford not to do coupe, convertible, and wagon variants of the car, just like Benz and BMW.
A 2012 Alpha convertible is likely to follow within a year. An Alpha coupe is a logical addition, although here's where the picture gets fuzzy. One of our spy photos shows a radical two-door hatchback-style car (similar in concept to the Z3-based BMW M Coupe that bowed in 1998). Cadillac may be anticipating an emerging trend toward luxury C-segment hatchbacks, which seems a gamble, even for the European market, although Mercedes is a player in the segment with the C-Class-based CLC.
We hear Bob Lutz is pushing hard for an Alpha coupe that's more or less a scaled-down version of the CTS. But the CTS Coupe's extreme rake makes it difficult to do a convertible at low cost compared with a more conventional three-box design-and a convertible to rival BMW's 3 Series and Benz's CLK is essential if Alpha is to be a truly global, high-margin vehicle.
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Besides, it's clear GM design chief Ed Wellburn doesn't want Alpha to be a CTS mini-me: "You know, if you're doing a smaller-type Cadillac, you'd have to tighten up the forms more," he says, without actually confirming the car's existence. "Because if you're doing a smaller one, you'd want it to be an agile, nimble car, and you certainly wouldn't want to do what some other brands have done, brands that are known for doing handling well and having a heavy body shape. That relationship of the body shape to the wheels is important, and you'd want to keep it lean."
As for Alpha's powertrains, Cadillac is experimenting with a direct-injection turbocharged 2.0-liter engine using the same fuel-sipping power-enhancing technology as the upcoming Cruze's 1.4-liter turbo four to produce about 220 horsepower. An optional 2.8-liter direct-injection V-6 from the "high-feature" (3.6) family could make upward of 270 horsepower. Europeans will be offered the exceptional 1.9-liter turbodiesel four.
RIVALS: BMW 3 Series, Mercedes-Benz C-Class, Audi A4, Lexus IS
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2012 DT7
Cadillac had planned to replace the rear-drive STS and front-drive DTS with one flagship, codenamed DT7. But in late summer that project was put on hold for one year. GM reportedly delayed funding the program just as Cadillac finished design work on the sedan.
Here's where the GM's cash crunch, the nuked economy, and concerns over the next-generation CAFE laws have coalesced into a perfect storm: The DT7 is precisely the sort of flagship car Cadillac needs to be considered a legitimate player in the luxury segment, a car that should play with Mercedes S-Class, BMW 7 Series, Lexus LS 460, and-yes-Hyundai's astounding new Genesis sedan. GM will be watching the national/global zeitgeist to determine whether building a new, large sedan makes better sense in late 2009 than it does in late 2008.
If GM spikes the project-plans were scrapped for a large Chevy sedan using the same architecture but on a shorter-wheelbase employing totally different sheetmetal and interior trim, and cheaper suspension components, which would have helped the business case-there's a lower-cost alternative: Design new sheetmetal for the stretch-wheelbase STS currently built for the Chinese market. In either scenario, likely engines will include the gas direct-injection 3.6 V-6 and the 4.5-liter turbodiesel V-8.
RIVALS: Mercedes-Benz S-Class; BMW 7 Series, Lexus LS 460, Hyundai Genesis
2014 ESCALADE
GM's full-size truck and SUV programs are on indefinite hold. But that hasn't stopped GM from thinking about the next-generation Escalade. This is, after all, the nameplate that unexpectedly kick-started Cadillac's renaissance; it would be foolish to walk away from the brand equity. Besides, even if gas prices remain high, Escalade is one of the few GM nameplates whose customers are wealthy enough for relatively poor gas mileage not to be a deal-breaker.
One of the key questions Cadillac product planners have been wrestling with is whether the Escalade needs to be truck-based. One proposal for the next-gen Escalade used the Lambda platform that underpins Enclave/Acadia/Outlook/Traverse, but turned the engine 90 degrees, placing it longitudinally for rear-drive dash-to-axle styling. This proved too costly a tear-up of the chassis from the A-pillar forward, although it could become part of the design of the next-generation Lambdas, which should launch some time in 2013-2014 model years.
More likely, the next-gen Escalade will be switched to the existing Lambda platform, which will accept a transverse-mounted small-block V-8 under the hood (the Enclave almost got one). The rear-drive dash-to-axle stance that's so critical in defining a luxury sedan seems less important in SUVs, but that doesn't mean it's a straightforward program.
The problem with Lambda for Cadillac is the structural steel under the skin would have to be re-engineered to give the Escalade a more formal roofline-and more vertical D-pillars-than any of the current Lambdas. The car also would need a less aggressively rising beltline and a new tailgate aperture. Those important stylistic issues-things that would ensure a Lambda Escalade is instantly perceived as a Cadillac-are not cheap.
So the three scenarios under discussion are to keep building the truck-based Escalade, replace it with a Lambda Escalade, or sell both. If Cadillac goes with Lambda, that doesn't mean the death of the EXT. Remember the Zeta-based GMC Denali XT concept?
The Cars You'll Drive In 2014
Everybody knows the auto world has shifted. The trick is divining which brands have got the gumption to last.
Now, with President Obama's new efficiency standards requiring a fleet-wide fuel economy average of 35.5 miles per gallon, automakers have their work cut out for them.
Domestic carmakers in particular are gearing up to battle forthcoming offerings from new-to-the-U.S.Fiat ( FIA - news - people ), with its diminutive 55.5-mile-per-gallon Fiat 500, and Chinese newcomer BYD, maker of the staid hybrid-electric F3DM sedan.
In Pictures: The Cars You'll Drive In 2014
Motor City had better get cracking. It takes four years to produce a market-ready vehicle, and a typical lifecycle for one model is seven years. While we wait to see what brands emerge victorious, Honda's ( HMC - news - people ) mod CR-Z and Ford's ( F - news - people ) "eco-boosted" Euro models point to the types of cars we can expect by 2014.
Incremental Improvement
Just don't get your hopes up for lots of choices when it comes to plug-in cars. Automakers insist there's still much to improve about the humble combustion engine, and they plan to eek out all the improvement they can get.
Tom Plucinsky, a spokesman for BMW, says the company will bring a gasoline-powered and highly efficient X1 compact SUV to market by 2014.
"There's no breakthrough," Plucinsky says. "It's all little things that can add up. We've made big advances over the last five years or so in the efficiency of the gasoline engine, but we think that there's another 10% there."
BMW will find that 10% by using smaller (read: lighter), forced-induction engines that generate more power. (Plucinsky says naturally aspirated engines will be relatively nonexistent by 2014). Ford and Mercedes have also said they'll bring 4-cylinder, turbo-charged engines to the U.S. in the next several years.
Audi has joined the light-engine surge as well, committing to building a next-generation S5 that weighs hundreds of pounds less than the current version. Audi's Bradley Stertz says advances in aluminum construction will lighten its load, making it more fuel-efficient.
China Rising
In the meantime, Americans can expect a trickle of vehicles from afar. Italian-run Fiat and Alfa Romeo will likely have vehicles in U.S. showrooms by 2014. But the real news lies further east: China.
At the Detroit Auto Show Chinese automakers Brilliance and BYD ("Build Your Dreams") showed cars that could eventually reach the states, perhaps branded under a different name. Geely and Chery are other Chinese automakers with ideas for expansion outside the East.
Lincoln Merrihew, senior vice president of business solutions for market research firm TNS, says he expects a China-made car to hit in five years or less.
"It'll be a mixture of capabilities and bravado that will determine who comes in under their own flag," Merrihew says.
If you liked this, read:
Introducing: Fiat
Hottest Electric Cars Soon To Hit The Road
Coolest Cars You've Never Heard Of
The Great Technological Unknown
Asia leads the green-power front. Nissan ( NSANY - news - people ) is testing battery-charging networks in Arizona, saying an unnamed electric vehicle will go on sale by late 2010. Toyota ( TM - news - people ) says it will sell one million gas-electric hybrids per year during the 2010s; Honda President Takeo Fukui has repeatedly said his company is most-heavily endorsing hydrogen technology.
Still, no one technology has emerged the clear winner. Sara Pines, a spokeswoman for Honda, says the company is experimenting with several possible solutions. Others say the as-yet undetermined carbon-emission standards in California will largely determine how automakers move forward.
That uncertainty has basically created a level playing field. Now it'll come down to whether the upstarts can hang with the big boys.
Now, with President Obama's new efficiency standards requiring a fleet-wide fuel economy average of 35.5 miles per gallon, automakers have their work cut out for them.
Domestic carmakers in particular are gearing up to battle forthcoming offerings from new-to-the-U.S.Fiat ( FIA - news - people ), with its diminutive 55.5-mile-per-gallon Fiat 500, and Chinese newcomer BYD, maker of the staid hybrid-electric F3DM sedan.
In Pictures: The Cars You'll Drive In 2014
Motor City had better get cracking. It takes four years to produce a market-ready vehicle, and a typical lifecycle for one model is seven years. While we wait to see what brands emerge victorious, Honda's ( HMC - news - people ) mod CR-Z and Ford's ( F - news - people ) "eco-boosted" Euro models point to the types of cars we can expect by 2014.
Incremental Improvement
Just don't get your hopes up for lots of choices when it comes to plug-in cars. Automakers insist there's still much to improve about the humble combustion engine, and they plan to eek out all the improvement they can get.
Tom Plucinsky, a spokesman for BMW, says the company will bring a gasoline-powered and highly efficient X1 compact SUV to market by 2014.
"There's no breakthrough," Plucinsky says. "It's all little things that can add up. We've made big advances over the last five years or so in the efficiency of the gasoline engine, but we think that there's another 10% there."
BMW will find that 10% by using smaller (read: lighter), forced-induction engines that generate more power. (Plucinsky says naturally aspirated engines will be relatively nonexistent by 2014). Ford and Mercedes have also said they'll bring 4-cylinder, turbo-charged engines to the U.S. in the next several years.
Audi has joined the light-engine surge as well, committing to building a next-generation S5 that weighs hundreds of pounds less than the current version. Audi's Bradley Stertz says advances in aluminum construction will lighten its load, making it more fuel-efficient.
China Rising
In the meantime, Americans can expect a trickle of vehicles from afar. Italian-run Fiat and Alfa Romeo will likely have vehicles in U.S. showrooms by 2014. But the real news lies further east: China.
At the Detroit Auto Show Chinese automakers Brilliance and BYD ("Build Your Dreams") showed cars that could eventually reach the states, perhaps branded under a different name. Geely and Chery are other Chinese automakers with ideas for expansion outside the East.
Lincoln Merrihew, senior vice president of business solutions for market research firm TNS, says he expects a China-made car to hit in five years or less.
"It'll be a mixture of capabilities and bravado that will determine who comes in under their own flag," Merrihew says.
If you liked this, read:
Introducing: Fiat
Hottest Electric Cars Soon To Hit The Road
Coolest Cars You've Never Heard Of
The Great Technological Unknown
Asia leads the green-power front. Nissan ( NSANY - news - people ) is testing battery-charging networks in Arizona, saying an unnamed electric vehicle will go on sale by late 2010. Toyota ( TM - news - people ) says it will sell one million gas-electric hybrids per year during the 2010s; Honda President Takeo Fukui has repeatedly said his company is most-heavily endorsing hydrogen technology.
Still, no one technology has emerged the clear winner. Sara Pines, a spokeswoman for Honda, says the company is experimenting with several possible solutions. Others say the as-yet undetermined carbon-emission standards in California will largely determine how automakers move forward.
That uncertainty has basically created a level playing field. Now it'll come down to whether the upstarts can hang with the big boys.
Sports Cars of the Future: 2014 Nissan GT-R - New and Future Cars
There has been all sorts of speculation surrounding the next-generation Nissan GT-R, including its anticipated arrival date (2013) and a possible hybrid version that would use the powertrain of the Infiniti Essence show car. We asked Kazutoshi Mizuno, the chief engineer and project boss of the GT-R, to comment on these rumors, and he vehemently denied that any such project was in the works.
“These reports that say we’re planning on producing a new-generation GT-R only five years after introducing the original, and that we’re going to make it a hybrid, are totally unfounded. I said when we introduced the GT-R that the car’s future will be decided in three years, and we are now entering that third year. Therefore, we’ve been too busy making sure that this GT-R makes a positive mark on the world to think about the next car,” he said.
Still, the arrival of yet another GT-R variant, the Spec M, due later this year in Japan (whether this car will make its way to the U.S. is still undecided) and the fact that the GT-R has become one of the most popular performance cars in the world, make us believe that plans are already being considered for the next-generation car. As for what will be underneath the sheet metal, it’s still a mystery. But it’s too early to totally dismiss the possibility of hybrid power, as the setup in the Essence can deliver as much as 600 bhp (440 bhp from a twin-turbocharged 3.7-liter V-6 and 160 hp from an electric motor) yet achieve 30–35 mpg.
“These reports that say we’re planning on producing a new-generation GT-R only five years after introducing the original, and that we’re going to make it a hybrid, are totally unfounded. I said when we introduced the GT-R that the car’s future will be decided in three years, and we are now entering that third year. Therefore, we’ve been too busy making sure that this GT-R makes a positive mark on the world to think about the next car,” he said.
Still, the arrival of yet another GT-R variant, the Spec M, due later this year in Japan (whether this car will make its way to the U.S. is still undecided) and the fact that the GT-R has become one of the most popular performance cars in the world, make us believe that plans are already being considered for the next-generation car. As for what will be underneath the sheet metal, it’s still a mystery. But it’s too early to totally dismiss the possibility of hybrid power, as the setup in the Essence can deliver as much as 600 bhp (440 bhp from a twin-turbocharged 3.7-liter V-6 and 160 hp from an electric motor) yet achieve 30–35 mpg.
2014 Mazda RX-8 - New and Future Cars
While things have been fairly quiet lately regarding Mazda’s rotary-powered sports car, the RX-8, we have confirmation from various sources in Japan that Mazda is indeed working on the next-generation rotary engine dubbed the 16X. There are reports that Mazda’s rotary engine development team has grown from 30 members to 60 in the last year, meaning that the Hiroshima-based company is quite serious about a new Wankel. The 16X will be much more fuel-efficient than the current Renesis rotary engine, and will probably be named the SKY-R, part of the company’s new generation of lean-burning engines called the SKY Series.
The SKY-R will most likely have displacement increased by about 300 cc from the current 1.3-liter 2-rotor Wankel. Insiders say that squeezing 300 bhp from the new engine would be a breeze, but Mazda is making fuel economy a high priority so you can expect output south of that figure. Also, we heard that the engine will feature some form of assist, though we’re not certain exactly what that will be. It may be an electric motor, making the next RX-8 a mild hybrid car.
The styling of this next-generation rotary sports car will be based on the Shinari concept vehicle that was shown last summer in Italy. Therefore, the production version will look more upscale than the current RX-8, prompting rumors that Mazda is thinking of calling it the RX-9 to differentiate it from the current car, which hasn’t proved very popular. Expect Mazda’s flagship sports car to make its debut sometime in 2014.
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